Exit polls predict rise of BJP in Delhi; Will AAP retain the throne?

As the dust settles on the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, multiple exit polls indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to emerge as the dominant force. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has governed Delhi for the past two consecutive terms, is facing a major setback according to these projections. The BJP, which has long struggled in the capital, is now predicted to win between 39 and 45 seats in the 70-seat Delhi Assembly, with some exit polls showing even higher figures.

According to the Chanakya Strategies exit poll, the BJP is projected to secure 39-44 seats, with AAP anticipated to fall short, winning between 25 and 28 seats. Other exit poll results, such as those from P-Marq and JVC, further reinforce this trend, with BJP maintaining a steady lead in the 39-49 seat range while AAP struggles to retain ground, projected to win between 21-31 seats. These projections indicate a significant decline in AAP’s dominance compared to the last election, when the party had claimed a massive victory.

The Congress party, which has consistently struggled in Delhi, is not expected to make much of a dent in the 2025 elections. Most exit polls suggest that the Congress is on track to win between 0 and 3 seats, further reinforcing its diminishing influence in the capital. The lack of a strong showing from Congress has led to speculation that the two major parties in the race will be BJP and AAP, with AAP finding it challenging to secure a third consecutive term in power.

The most optimistic projection for AAP comes from Matrize, which places the party in a near-neck-and-neck race with BJP, projecting AAP’s seat count between 32 and 37, while the BJP is expected to win 35-40 seats. This tighter contest is in contrast to other exit polls, which show a more decisive victory for the BJP. Despite this, no exit poll suggests a clear majority for AAP, indicating that the party’s chances of retaining power are uncertain.

Pollsters are divided on the factors contributing to the BJP’s surge, with many pointing to its organizational strength and voter base in Delhi. Despite the challenges faced by AAP, no specific reasons were given in the exit poll reports regarding the decline in its popularity. However, the projections highlight a growing competition in Delhi politics, with both BJP and AAP battling for the crucial urban vote. With all eyes on the final results, it remains to be seen if the BJP can secure a strong foothold in Delhi after a 27-year absence from power.